All but 3 Canadian Cities to see further slow down in 2019

Posted by Robert McIntyre on Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 at 1:00pm.

Looking forward into 2019, We in the Real Estate World are hoping for a better year than 2018. Although reports from economists are saying all but our wish. The Calgary Market has continued to slow down, as well as Toronto & Vancouver, which in turn may positively impact our home market. The following is a report from "Better Dwelling" on how All but 3 Canadian Cities should continue to see a slow down for the remainder of the year.

"Canadian real estate buyers are taking a break after driving most of the country’s markets to new highs. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show the sales to listings ratio declined across most of Canada in January. There were only three exceptions, all located east of Toronto.

The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) is a quick way to view real estate market demand, and is used by CREA. The indicator measures the ratio of home sales, to the number of new listings on the MLS. The thinking behind it is, by measuring same month absorption – we get a feeling for how hot or cold a market is. It’s how the industry can tell if a market is “balanced” or not.

Reading it is straightforward. If the ratio is above 60%, the market is called a “seller’s market,” where prices are expected to rise. If the ratio falls below 40%, it’s a “buyer’s market,” and prices are expected to fall. Between 40% and 60%, the market is considered “balanced,” and prices are just right. Be careful, fast moving ratios can change the market quickly. That is, sometimes a ratio is just making a brief stop in balanced territory before the market flips.

Canadian real estate markets showing annual improvements were all located in Eastern Canada. Montreal showed the largest gain with an SNLR of 70.1% in January, up 6.6% from last year. Ottawa came in second at 70.2%, up 5.3% from last year. Quebec City is up to 52.6, rising 0.8% from last year.

Western Canadian real estate led the way lower. Fraser Valley experienced the biggest decline with an SNLR of 48.5%, down 24.2% from last year. Vancouver real estate was in second at 43.3%, down 22.9% from last year. Calgary came in third with an SNLR of 45.9%, down 8.5% from last year. Fraser Valley and Vancouver are the country’s most expensive markets, and have seen some of the biggest gains. The cooling is therefore expected, after running overly hot for a few years."

 

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